The latest poll news from the California recall
Gavin Newsom’s lead in California’s recall election could prove as misleading as Hillary Clinton’s lead in Wisconsin or Joe Biden’s lead in Florida, following the 2016 and 2020 Democratic nominations.
it’s not impossible. But Mr Newsom’s leadership now dwarfs the usual voting error and is enough to counteract nearly every statewide voting lapse in recent memory.
Opposition to the recall of Mr Newsom has increased by 16 points, 57.3 to 41.5 per cent, according to FiveThirtyEight Average. The 2020 elections decimated Democrats by about five percentage points on average.
In the presidential elections of 2016 or 2020, there was no state where there was a decrease of 16 percentage points in the last election. Perhaps the worst recent voting lapse – Senator Susan Collins’ comfortable nine-point victory, after trailing by three points – is in the ballpark, but still five points short of erasing Mr Newsom’s lead.
Many of the most embarrassing and high-profile misses for pollsters, such as seven-point voting errors in Wisconsin in 2016 and 2020, could still leave Mr Newsom with a double-digit victory.
It is difficult to find many precedents for such a huge polling error. According to CNN writer Harry Anten, there have been only four cases in the past 20 years where the voting average in the governor’s race was at least 15 percentage points lower.
Mr Newsom’s opponents might expect that the folly of a recall election could make it more challenging for pollsters than a general election. Large voting errors often occur in special and primary elections.
But the polls in previous California gubernatorial recalls and dead-ons were pretty accurate in a high-profile effort to recall former Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in 2012. High turnout in early voting in California so far reduces risk Abnormal turnout will contribute to an especially large voting error.
And California isn’t a state where elections have been badly missed in recent election cycles. The largest voting errors have occurred in Wisconsin, Maine and other states with large numbers of white working-class voters. That’s not California. According to census data, only 22 percent of California voters in 2020 were white without a four-year college degree, the second lowest of any state.
Perhaps as a result of this, statewide polling in California has generally been fairly accurate.
According to FiveThirtyEight, Joe Biden took a 29.2-point lead in the final California polls.
He won by 29.2 points.
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