modi has time to improve his rating before next general election
Author: Neelanjan Mukhopadhyay
Two recent surveys show that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s approval rating has decreased. In the survey, there is reason for Modi opponents to be happy, then there is reason for the supporters also to be satisfied. This will encourage Modi’s critics. They will be happy that the clout currently held by the central government is being curbed. This makes him see a way to change the government in 2024.
Modi’s rating fell
On the other hand, Modi supporters too would have been relieved by these surveys. They will be happy that the decline in popularity of the Prime Minister has not come as much as he had expected. Modi’s approval rating is still 63 per cent and has not gone below 50 per cent. If the rating had gone below 50 per cent, it would have been an alarm bell for the Prime Minister and his party. This survey has been done by Morning Consult, an international data intelligence company of America.
A survey has also come from an Indian agency C-Voter, which is going to increase the problem of BJP and Prime Minister. In the data presented by C-Voter, the percentage of people who are very satisfied with the performance of the Prime Minister has come down to 37, from 65 per cent a year ago. The agency has claimed that for the first time since Modi became Prime Minister in 2014, the number of people satisfied with the functioning of the government is lower than the disgruntled people.
This change has come against the biggest challenge so far, in which the performance of Modi and his government has been less than expected. Firstly, the government could not anticipate the second wave of the corona epidemic. Secondly, she did not appear ready to face this crisis. Despite this, neither the results of the survey can be completely ignored nor can they be considered as a political trend for the coming few years.
There are many reasons for this. First, these results are based on a low quality survey as people cannot get a quality reaction in this phase of the epidemic. It is possible that people have their opinion taken by random phone calls. Or the database already prepared is used for the survey. It may also be that the sample size is too small or may not have gained the confidence of the surveyors. In such a situation, people would not have openly expressed their opinion on the support or opposition of the Prime Minister.
Second, it is possible that many people have become disenchanted with Modi due to an administrative mistake of not anticipating the second wave and claiming a premature victory over Corona. People will also be angry at the failure of the medical system, oxygen and lack of hospital beds for which state governments were held responsible. But due to this, BJP-ruled states also came under the target of the Center.
Modi’s image as that of an able administrator may lead people to doubt this claim after these incidents. Despite this, he can stand with Modi due to his personal popularity and Hindutva politics. It is said that time heals even the oldest wounds. It is therefore possible that once the epidemic is controlled and the government’s vaccination campaign is properly completed, people forget the woes of the second wave and the government’s accountability for it. It has to be remembered that there is still three years left for the completion of Modi’s second term and the next Lok Sabha election will be held in 2024. It is also true that there are elections in BJP-ruled Goa, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh early next year. Apart from these, voting is also to be held in Punjab, where BJP has separated from its ally Akali Dal. It may be that the BJP loses elections in all three states due to poor performance. Or if not all three, then he may be defeated in one or two places. You may find it strange to hear this, but losing the UP elections will not shock Modi. If this happens, then Mahant Adityanath will also be weak, which can become a challenge for Modi in future.
general election far away
Overall, Modi has three years to achieve the same approval rating as before. For this, they have to take sensible steps. Measures have to be taken to reduce the economic difficulties of the people. Given the poor state of the exchequer, this task will not be easy. They will also have to take such measures, so that people get jobs again. The government has to increase money in the hands of the common man. Last year’s economic package has been left far behind and it did not help the economy much.
Apart from the economic challenge, Modi will have to bring back the voters who have distanced themselves from the party due to administrative failure. Barring a few things on the Hindutva agenda, Modi does not have many achievements to count during this period. He would have completed half of the second term in the next 6 months. With this, the countdown to the next election will begin. It is also true that even though Modi is under pressure today, he has not given up. They do not even have much time to revive their ratings.
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author’s own
#modi #time #improve #rating #general #election