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kab khatm hoga corona: explained why covid-19 may enter in endemic stage by 2022 when no one worry about its outbreak : Will the worry of new wave of corona end with 2022?

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kab khatm hoga corona: explained why covid-19 may enter in endemic stage by 2022 when no one worry about its outbreak : Will the worry of new wave of corona end with 2022?

Highlights

  • Due to massive infection and vaccination, now signs of corona progress towards endemic stage.
  • In countries like America, UK where vaccination coverage is excellent, the epidemic will be weak.
  • Apart from this, due to infection, even in countries with natural immunity in a large population, corona will be weak like India.

New Delhi
The corona pandemic is about to enter its third year. With this, it seems that Covid-19 has now reached the endemic stage. This means that it will continue to spread among people, but it will be less severe and it can also be predicted that there will be a risk of infection in a certain area or a certain type of people. According to experts, with time this disease will become like common diseases like flu and common cold. But this phase will start at different times in different places. The impact of this disease on the population will be determined mainly by two factors – vaccination coverage and mutation of the virus.

First of all, the corona epidemic is likely to be neutralized in countries where vaccination coverage is excellent, such as the US and UK, or countries where the infection has resulted in immunity against corona within a large population, such as India. In this context, the huge figures of infection in India can also prove to be a ray of hope.

In July, the Indian Council of Medical Research conducted a sero survey across the country. According to him, 70 percent sero-prevalence was found in 8 states, ie 70 percent of the people surveyed had antibodies against corona. Dr T Jaiban John, Head and Retired Professor, Department of Clinical Virology and Microbiology at CMC Vellore, told our associate newspaper The Times of India, “We can say that we have reached the endemic stage. But it is not because of vaccination but because of natural infection.

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According to the sero survey report published last month in Delhi, which was devastated during the second wave, more than 90 percent of the population got immunity against Corona. That is, the possibility of a new wave in the national capital is very less provided that no new variants come to the fore. The survey also shows that vaccination has created strong immunity in people.

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Variants and Intensities
Scientists often use the term R0 to measure the spread of a virus. This means that on average, the number of people infected with the virus is spreading the disease. In the case of the delta variant of Corona, the Rnot ranged from 6 to 7 i.e. on an average, 6 to 7 people got the disease from one infected.

The delta variant has affected countries such as Singapore and China where vaccination rates are very high but natural immunity (immunity arising from infection) was low as restrictions like strict lockdown were in place. Vaccination coverage is still low in Russia. The Delta variant has caused a lot of havoc there in recent months.

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London recently told news agency Reuters that Britain was also hit by the Delta variant. He has warned that due to the corona virus, there may be more deaths than average due to respiratory diseases for the next 2 to 5 years.

Trevor Bedford, a virologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center in the US, predicts that a light wave of corona may be seen in the US this winter. In 2022-23, Corona may reach the endemic stage there.

tightening the grip on the virus
Epidemiologist Maria van Kirkhove, who led the WHO Kovid-19 response, told Reuters this month, ‘We think that from now until the end of 2022, we can control this virus … by then we can control the infection. Will be able to significantly reduce the cases of seriousness and death. However, there should not be a single case of corona in the world, reaching here is still a long way off. The rapid spread of the virus, its ability to mutate and its associated unpredictability are making this task more challenging.

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According to experts, at present the best way is to vaccinate as many people as possible. This will give the government time to formulate a long-term strategy to deal with Corona. Especially for the potential endemic phase, time will be available for strategy.

Along with vaccination, treatment through antiviral drugs is also proving effective. If necessary, booster doses of the vaccine should be given. Assuming that corona is now a reality of our everyday life, it is necessary to make covid appropriate behavior a habit.

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