Before Ukraine invasion, Russia and China strengthened economic ties

“If they don’t follow America, they’re in trouble with America, but if they don’t follow China, they could face penalties in China,” he said.

Of course, collecting fines from companies that are unwilling to pay and monitoring whether businesses comply with the rules can be difficult, Chorazempa said. “It is proving difficult to monitor things that are already controlled, and if you expand that list, it will be a real challenge to verify what is happening in Russia,” he said.

The Biden administration’s export controls apply to goods produced in any country as long as they use American technology — including chip makers such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and Shanghai-based Semiconductor Manufacturing Industry Corporation.

Gabriel Wildau, managing director of consulting firm Teneo, said both companies continue to rely on the United States for some components and manufacturing technology. If they continue to supply Russia, SMIC and other Chinese companies could be cut off from US technology, the same kind of fines that crippled Huawei.

“If Beijing is seen as pro-Moscow, there will be increased pressure in the US Congress to extend these sanctions,” Mr. Wildau wrote in a note to clients. Beijing will also face the risk that other major technology exporters such as Japan, South Korea and the Netherlands will “adopt Washington’s hard line,” he said.

China’s state-run banks may also face the risk of continuing to lend to Russia. China and Russia are settling much of their trade using the renminbi and the ruble. Beijing is also trying to develop a digital use of its currency as an alternative to the dollar, which could help Russia limit the impact of financial sanctions.

But Chinese banks are still heavily dependent on the US dollar. While major Chinese banks are already withdrawing their financing to Russia, Mr. Wildau said, Beijing could choose to support Russia by using smaller state-owned banks that don’t do a lot of international business for which Requires the use of dollars.