Senator Flávio Bolsonaro has announced Rogério Marinho as the party’s candidate to lead the Senate; the current President of the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre, is seeking support to remain in office.
The PL is expected to support the re-election of Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB) as President of the Chamber of Deputies, but it will insist on having one of its own members lead the Senate, advocating for the candidacy of Rogério Marinho (PL-RN). This strategy is intended to prevent the party—despite having the largest number of deputies—from becoming marginalized or losing influence during the allocation of committee assignments.
As reported by CNN, the party has scheduled a meeting with its members for next Tuesday (the 3rd) at 6:00 PM to finalize its position regarding the Chamber presidency and the distribution of legislative posts.
Before moving toward an agreement with Hugo Motta, the PL had considered launching its own bid for the presidency of the Chamber. Names under consideration included caucus leader Sóstenes Cavalcante (PL-RJ) and the current Vice-President of the Chamber, Altineu Côrtes (PL-RJ).
This initiative lost momentum, however, as it became clear that Hugo Motta holds a solid majority for re-election. The Speaker of the House has already secured the support of 15 political parties—including the PT, which has officially declared its backing for his re-election. The faction aligned with PL president Valdemar Costa Neto argues that, without an agreement involving [Hugo] Motta, having the largest parliamentary caucus would be meaningless. This is due to the mechanism used for the distribution of committees.
In the Chamber [of Deputies], the order in which committee chairs are selected is determined by the proportional size of the political blocs formed at the start of the legislative term; larger blocs are granted the right to chair a greater number of committees.
Essentially, those within a larger bloc get to choose earlier and more frequently. A party that remains outside such a bloc—even if it is the single largest party—is treated as a standalone entity, meaning it selects later, by which time the most highly contested committees have already been assigned.
The Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) is traditionally the first to be selected, as it serves as the gateway for all legislative proposals, which it reviews for constitutionality. This is the committee that Congressman Nikolas Ferreira (PL) aspires to chair. If the PL is excluded from Motta’s bloc, the CCJ could slip out of the party’s reach.
Conversely, the more hardline faction within the PL is reluctant to support Hugo Motta, citing his close ties to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT). The Speaker of the House has signaled to the Workers’ Party (PT) strategists that he will consider the PL’s demands; however, according to members of the PL caucus, the PT will be given priority.
In response, members of the PT have threatened to abandon Motta’s bloc should the Speaker of the House secure support from Flávio Bolsonaro’s party (the PL).
The PL secured the largest caucus
In the October elections, the PL emerged with the largest caucus in Congress. In the Chamber of Deputies, the party elected 121 representatives—an increase of 22 seats from the 99 it held in the previous legislature. The PT will have 70 representatives, while the federation comprising the PT, PCdoB, and PV will have 88, making it the second-largest group.
In the Senate, the PL elected 19 senators; combined with nine senators whose terms run until 2031, the party will hold 28 seats starting in 2027, making it the largest group. In the current legislature, the party held 15 Senate seats. The Senate has a total of 81 seats.
The situation in the Senate is more challenging.
Despite these gains, the landscape in the Senate is more difficult for the party. However, according to CNN, the likelihood of the opposition failing to field a candidate for the Senate presidency is “zero.”
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro has already signaled his intention to nominate Rogério Marinho for the race. Marinho, the current opposition leader, served as one of the coordinators for the PL’s presidential campaign.
The situation differs from that of the Chamber of Deputies. In the Senate, party blocs are typically determined after the election of the governing board, which reduces the pressure on the PL to align with Alcolumbre before the vote takes place.
The PP and the Republicans have already announced their support for the re-election of the current Senate president. Nevertheless, votes for leadership positions in both the Senate and the Chamber are conducted by secret ballot; therefore, a formal announcement by a party does not guarantee the votes of all its individual lawmakers. For instance, figures such as Guilherme Derrite (PP), Damares Alves (Republicanos-DF), and Tereza Cristina (PP-MS) are expected to support the opposition candidate.
Meanwhile, Alcolumbre has indicated to interlocutors that he has at least 48 votes to retain his position as head of the chamber; he also believes that Lula’s victory has improved the prospects for countering the PL candidate.
Impeachment of Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justices
The PL’s opposition to the current Senate President includes demands for the impeachment of justices of the Supreme Federal Court (STF). Currently, the authority to accept or reject requests to remove these justices from the court rests solely with the Senate President. Dozens of such requests are pending in the chamber, many of which are directed against Justice Alexandre de Moraes.
In August, Alcolumbre signaled to the opposition that he might place the issue on the agenda if he were re-elected. Later, however, he began telling interlocutors that he had no intention of scheduling the requests—specifically those targeting Moraes, with whom he maintains a close relationship.
Marinho, one of the figures being considered to run for the Senate presidency against the incumbent from Amapá, has criticized the “excessive power” held by the Senate President. He stated that a “new Senate” would not remain silent in the face of impeachable offenses committed by Supreme Court justices.
The opposition is also working on rule changes that would allow such requests to proceed automatically once 49 signatures are secured. However, actually approving the impeachment of a justice is a different matter; it requires 54 votes—a two-thirds majority—which is significantly higher than the 28 seats currently held by the Liberal Party (PL).
Nevertheless, the new composition of the Senate is causing concern within a faction of the Supreme Court. It is estimated within the Court that approximately 50 senators favor the impeachment of Supreme Court justices.
Lula’s Nominations
There is another dimension to this controversy: the future of the judiciary. If Lula is re-elected, he will be able to nominate at least four more justices to the Supreme Federal Court (STF) and six to the Superior Court of Justice (STJ) by the end of his term, as mandatory retirement ages will necessitate these vacancies, as reported by CNN.
At the STF, one seat has already remained vacant since the departure of Luís Roberto Barroso. Lula attempted to nominate the Attorney General of the Union, Jorge Messias, but the Senate rejected the nomination. In the coming years, Luiz Fux (2028), Cármen Lúcia (2029), and Gilmar Mendes (2030) are expected to leave the Court. A seat is already vacant at the STJ (Superior Court of Justice), and Og Fernandes will turn 75 in November.
The Constitution stipulates that justices of the STF (Supreme Federal Court) are appointed by the President of the Republic, subject to approval by a majority in the Senate—that is, at least 41 out of the 81 senators. Nominees are first questioned by the Senate’s Constitution, Justice, and Citizenship Committee (CCJ). With a more right-leaning Senate and the presidency of the chamber held by an ally of the PL (Liberal Party), Lula may face greater opposition, an increased risk of rejection, and delays in the processing of nominations, as the Senate leadership exerts influence over the entire legislative agenda.